Real Estate Articles

2017-09-20 The “Real Estate Goddess” Provides a Market Update | By: Fellow GDREIA Members

The “Real Estate Goddess” Provides a Market Update
 By Larry D. Hudson
(Click Here for Photos)
 
First off, said Vena Jones-Cox (aka “The Real Estate Goddess”) the real estate cycle is a long one. Eighteen years long, said the Cincinnati-based investor and entrepreneur, during her visit to Greater Dayton REIA’s Third Wednesday Action Group meeting (9/20/17). Jones-Cox has experienced the characteristics of the long cycle over a real estate career that began in 1989, she said.
 
The eighteen-year cycle includes times of recession, recovery, boom and bust, Jones-Cox said. In the end, she said, the long cycle is driven by rates of real estate occupancy.
 
When there is a recession, demand for additional housing slowly builds, leading to increased housing construction, she said. When the housing market recovers, it eventually booms -- then reaches a point where there are more housing units available than people to live in them, she said. That, Jones-Cox said, leads to a collapse in prices and homebuilding, which begins the long cycle again.
 
So where are we in the long cycle now?
 
Here in Dayton and Cincinnati, Jones-Cox said, the bust (housing recession) is now several years behind us (2008-2011). Recovery has been underway for years, and sales of houses are brisk – with reports of inventory shortages around the region, she said.
 
Our region is still in the expansionary phase now, Jones-Cox said. There may be a temporary slowdown in the market along the way, she said, but if the 18-year long real estate cycle holds true to form, the peak of the cycle is not due until 2025.
 
The mid-cycle slowdown is expected to come within the next three years, Jones-Cox said.
When it comes, she said, expect home prices to come down. One reason to expect the slowdown, Jones-Cox said, is the booming stock market – which observers say is due for a “correction” soon.
 
Every phase of the real estate cycle presents different opportunities for investors, Jones-Cox told her audience at Greater Dayton REIA’s Third Wednesday Action Group meeting (9/20/17).
Her advice for entrepreneurs and investors now: line up private lenders and learn how to manage rentals.

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